In my experience, probability weighting outcomes isn't ideal...

In my experience, probability weighting outcomes isn't ideal when you only have 1 or 2 "items" and the result is binary. However, when you have 5 or more, it's the most obvious approach. This is how I have valued the Neuren business, albeit with a much lower chance of success than that suggested by RW55. Still, I'm at a $70 post tax DCF value. Every time we tick another box that value increases. Conversely, if we miss a tick, the opposite occurs. This hasn't been the case since the miss we had with the TBI trial (6 + years ago)?
I'm in the takeover camp, and I think it will be sooner rather than later (ie, next couple of months). I'm not concerned if I'm wrong with that prediction, as I'm confident we will keep ticking the boxes.....you know the rest of the story....increase on increase on increase...