For NNZ2591, using typical price to sales ratio for pharma of ~3x, the valuation would be ~US$12.3b noting Skyclary's acquisition implies peak sales/price multiple of around 4.8x.
For NNZ2591, factor in a significantly conservative discount of 90-95% to account for clinical and regulatory risks, the resultant acquisition price still ranges between ~US$5.3b to US$10.6b.
No value has been assigned to Fragile X in the valuations above
Within orphan neurological diseases, there are many other indications that Neuren or an acquirer could pursue. Outside of orphan diseases, we see potential for this drug in neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias. In addition, we see a solid scientific rationale for this drug being trialled in autism. Given this broad applicability of the mechanism of action, NNZ-2591 is a pipeline in a drug.
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