I thought I understood your original, very thorough, analysis from the 28th but now this clarification has confused me a bit.
On the 28th you posted: "So now what happens if the next 3 Ph II trials are positive? This means our model would now shift to 50% for Ph II to Approval. (As an aside, 47% is the NORMAL historical Ph II to Approval POS reported in the research for Orphan drugs once you shrug off the CNS specific Orphan failure curse, which we assuredly have).Now we're up to $326-$515 per share."
But now you've said: " therefore if all Ph II's are positive Neuren should be valued at that point (perhaps end of this year) as if NNZ-2591 is an approved drug (for at least 1 indication)" ie $130-$210 per share - "the $130-$210 is based on only 1 indication being approved (with the other 3 all failing)".
I must be overlooking something?
Cheers
NEU Price at posting:
$21.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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