@bonkers89 a fantastic summary, many thanks for your effort. I just have a few discussion topics.. And thankfully nobody can call me a downramper anymore as we've all had plenty opportunity to buy as many as we like in the last few sessions! Haha. I will also disclose I am all in at the moment as I also believe this SP is dramatically undervalued. However I also like to be as realistic/ cautious as possible when building expectations. So;
1. This is the first time anyone on here or from reports has quoted a cost of €200? That is almost too good to be true, hence I just wanted to double check. This is the mente autism that has RRP of €1700?! Distributor margin of 30%, so NTI sell price to dist is circa €1300? A €1100 mark up? Can't be. We previously had seen a cost of €800 Please someone correct my number here as that profit margin would be unheard of.
2. I understand the target calculation as 1% of population of the countries you mention (plus my home of UK!) are on the ASD. Then 10per cent of those are aged 3-12... So that's the potential market. NTI then expect 50% of these families to buy Mente austism for their child. This is where there are wildly different views from people... Without question if my child was ASD then I would buy... As I'm sure everyone on here would. However, I think 50% is a high number to have as an expectation. Affordability, belief in the product/ neuro theory (relatively new techniques especially), chance to put aside 40mins every morning, potentially slow to hear about the product etc.... As I say, wildly different views I'm sure.. But remember every parent is not in the same financial situation, or thinks the same as you. A single parent of 4 kids leaving to school every morning could never afford the price or the time needed. It's unfortunate but it's the real world.
On very rough calculations, with a €500 euro profit per unit, and 60k headsets sold per year 2018, I still get to a market cap of 80m, so double where we are now. So once again, I think this is an absolute steal here... But I get nervous when people get over-excited and start telling me FDA approval is as good as done!
To finish on a high note... If this cost of 200 is correct, is 140k is achieved and US sales come by 2019, and we start to put in a valuation on the data (such as e.g. Supermarket club card consumer data) then I can easily get to a valuation as exciting as Bonkers if not higher. 12 month blue sky of $4.00
(20min delay)