NTI (ASX) Neurotech Investor Roadshow 2016

Originally posted by mckenzie3013 ↑

Firstly, I'd like to say how great it is to see the nuts and bolts of the commercial side being genuinely engaged on this thread. I think that there are so many positive aspects with regards to Neurotech's management and their product which we can rely upon that we are able to ask some harder questions and delve into the "nitty-gritty" as it were. But if this isn't your sort of thing then please avert your eyes cause this post comes with a serious Boredom Caution. That being said, I am going to need at least Newrotothis and Bonkers89 to bare with me because unlike myself you guys actually know what you are talking about and can answer these questions.

Ok, I understand that we are basing the sales projections on the 140k potential market of Germany, Italy and France. This being the number of 3-12yrs children (10%) with autism (1%) of these countries. Then assuming a market penetration upwards of 40% to arrive at the 62,000 units sold. So this is not a "per year" figure but a total units sold over what time period (presumably not day one...) ?
Is 40% a realistic expectation of market penetration? If not, then what is usually the market penetration for new tech in the healthcare industry (or a high-low average) ?

I agree with Bonkers suggestion that the key to market expansion will be regulatory approval. So which other countries in Europe are Neurotech currently seeking approval ?
Do they intend to eventually be available in all EU countries (let's just include Britain and the UK as being part of the EU for simplicity's sake just for now) ?
Do they intend to reach any of the markets in Asia other than Australia ?
If we then assume FDA approval for sale in the US will be approved (in an avg./usual time period) and include similar potential market (10% of the 1%) figures and industry average market penetration over time. Can these sales projections be combined to form a ' predicted sales per year' figure or should they include further market expansion beyond initial penetration in established markets? Or are all of these projections just total sales figures for a "one-off" sale, excluding the handset and software ? (no guesses what sales figures I'd like to include next...)
Obviously the handset doesn't have the same profit margins but they are ongoing sales for the company. But I wasn't exactly sure whether it was the Mente subscription alone that will be offered as an optional extra or a handset as well as the Mente subscription. If it is a handset with the Mente software and subscription then what is the cost of the handset to purchase (I assume handsets will be padlets that are purchased and not manufactured by Neurotech) ?

So if there is a predicted sales per year that can come from these projections or just using the total sales predicted over time, what are the forecast sales over the next financial quarter, the next two financial quarters, FY17, the next two FY and so on?

And I know this is getting a little bit... something, or a lot of something; I'm boring the frakk out of even myself at this point but this is the part I need you for Newrotothis because I've seen you do it a couple of times now. If we consider the sales figures predicted above to now be conservative and as realistic as possible, what would you say the MC and a fair value estimate of the SP would be at the end of this financial year and in two years time?

I'm not really going to apologise for banging on so much, you were warned (in a way, almost) and if you have read all of this you can't very well unread it now. So, there it is. And thank you, especially Bangers and Newrotothis if you have taken the time here your expertise is very much appreciated.

GLTAH [but I don't think we need for NTI]
DYOR (unless you can get Batman to do it, then get Batman to DYOR!)

Expand

IMO
If someone can answer this accurately, we'd all be rich. It's all estimates which include risk and this is what makes the stock market.

What I can add is there's around 124million babies born a year with 1 in 68 diagnosed with Autism. Obviously a lot of these are born in third world countries, but you're not going to run out of devices to sell once the established market has been saturated. A yearly, and future yearly, sales figure will come (hopefully with high growth) once we start selling - just have to give it time.

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(20min delay)
Last 7.0¢		Change -0.003(4.11%)		Mkt cap ! $71.21M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.3¢	7.3¢	7.0¢	$56.73K	797.5K

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