Hey there, I think the recent investor presentation has answers to most of your questions.
- From page 18, 140k target market is based on HALF (50%) of the actual population of 3-12yrs children (10%) with autism (1%) across UK, Germany, Italy, Austria, Switzerland and France. So a penetration of 40% in the targeted market actually means 20% to the entire kids sufferer population, which is quite conservative and high achievable IMO.
- Not sure where this 60k units figure comes from, I assume it's based on the 40% penetration of the targeted market, which was stated will be over the next 24months, so it's not a "per year" figure, more like a total sales over the next 2 years in just Europe alone.
- The device already received CE Marking, meaning it's been approved in ALL of Europe. The next stage is country registration, which currently only Italy has been finalised. As stated in the preso (page 16), they are putting Germany, Austria, UK and France as their first priority, so they are the next targets.
- As for sales figure in US, I don't think anyone can work out an accurate number, all based on raw data and estimated at this stage.
- The above slide from page 16 of preso also answered your next question, sale is based on mainly headband, the only optional extra offered is the tablet with pre-configured software and app. Subscription based model as others have suggested will be introduced in future deals I believe.
- Again it's difficult to forecast sale for next FY at this stage as we don't know what's coming in future agreements with the other priority countries. However, if we do a simple calculation based on just the Italian agreement, with a minimum of 8700 units to be purchased up to 2019, and roughly €600 profit per unit, that nets the company a minimum of €5.2mil profit for the next 3 years from a single agreement in 1 country alone, assuming only headbands are sold.
- Lastly, I don't think anyone can give you an estimate on what the SP will be in the next 2 years. But with what the company has already achieved, and to still be sitting at a MC of $40mil (plus a deal from a single country that nets them 1/8 of MC in profit the next 3 years), one can only say this is ridiculously undervalued.
Hope this helps!
As always DYOR and all IMO.
Hezz
NTI Price at posting:
46.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
