A while back I bought back in at around $2.5, felt like an OK price at the time. But after the 3rd or 4th bout of good news where 1-2 weeks later the SP still ended up lower... I decided to just stop fighting the momentum and sell, got lucky on a pump and broke even. Figured that when the loans and production schedules are more concrete I would buy back in, and until then there was no rush.
In my mind it boiled down to two choices:
Opt 1, Hold. If NVX announced something incredible, benefit immediately. The catch - Lose more money if it went down in the meantime.
Opt 2, Sell. Don't lose any money if it goes down in the meantime. The catch - If NVX announces something incredible soon after, then I must buy back the shares at a premium.
I went with option 2. Things that helped - It was a new position, small (relatively), and I had an opportunity to get out close to break even. That is to say, I wasn't battling with the usual biases. I wish I could have had this kind of clarity for other stocks I own! I swear, the larger the position, the deeper in the red, or the more emotionally attached you are, then harder it is to change course. I have some stocks where I know rationally I should have sold, yet the most I could bring myself to do was sell 10%, because I was so worried that the next day the "big news" will arrive and I will miss out! In the end I should have just sold all and gone with my gut and I'd be much better off. Completely agree with Kokoro that it's much harder to close a position vs open one.
In summary, I'm interested in buying NVX again, but not yet. It's been tempting each time some positive news drops, but until the news is big enough to change the downward momentum then I don't feel rushed to buy. (I also accept I have a privileged position where my last sell price is much higher than the current price, so I'm not in immediate danger of needing to buy-back higher than I sold. This is a factor that absolutely has an emotional impact, for better and for worse. Making the same hold or sell decision today would be more difficult than it was when the price was $2.50 IMO).
Expand
(20min delay)