Ok PP, tahnks for that, and i won't take the hint.
I think a few key things are:
1: the Mac Bank person thinks transhippers may be a constraint; but the person at Onslow says this:
MinRes Onslow Shipments (Moz)@onslowshipping·12hThis all but confirms what I have said previously, namely, that MinRes is now of the view that Onslow can operate at around 40mtpa with 5 transhippers active and no haulage constraints. 2/nMinRes Onslow Shipments (Moz)@onslowshipping·12hThere are absolutely no current “constraints” (unless considering things like weather, which can hardly be overcome) relating to the transhippers. The paragraph in the AFR is utter nonsense. The only constraint on exports out of Ashburton is haulage. 3/3
2: “Everybody was pretty impressed with what they’ve done. Even for someone like me, who has been perhaps more critical than others,” said Jonathan Sharp, a CLSA analyst who also attended. “MinRes has been over-promising and under-delivering [on its iron ore output]. But that doesn’t take away from what we saw. What they have achieved [with Onslow Iron] in 23 months is no mean feat.”
I thought this was pretty important. The person who was big sceptic said everyone was pretty impressed, and you had 50 people on the tour.
3: “It’s a formidable piece of infrastructure. The parts that have been upgraded look to be constructed as well as any other piece of highway that I’ve ever driven on. It obviously has teething issues, but any kind of innovative or large-scale, large capital project is bound to have teething issues,” said MST’s Frydman.
I think that's important; people are banging on the Haul rd is problematic. and this person is saying the upgraded stuff is as good as anything he's seen with highway quality.
4: The 4 th thing is Aus super attended. Remember they went below substantial (< 5%). I actually do rate Aus Super, especially with voting down the Origin Scheme. My guess is they still may be larger holders (eg 10%), but have stuff on swap, so it can't be identified what they';re actually doing.
They could easily be natural buyers up to 19.9% if they get confidence Onslow is working.
The key to outperforming is identifying clues others may not see, but also listening to everything.
You can't have too much information.
And you can choose to ignore whatever you want.
I was asking others as i genuinely want to hear views before corrupting other people's minds with my own.
This all but confirms what I have said previously, namely, that MinRes is now of the view that Onslow can operate at around 40mtpa with 5 transhippers active and no haulage constraints. 2/n
There are absolutely no current “constraints” (unless considering things like weather, which can hardly be overcome) relating to the transhippers. The paragraph in the AFR is utter nonsense. The only constraint on exports out of Ashburton is haulage. 3/3
(20min delay)