There is far too much price anchoring happening on these threads. People remember the stock being $16 or $11 and think that means $6 is cheap. This is completely missing the obvious: the stock is de-rating in line with the fundamentals. A year ago, the stock was heading into the end of June at $15/sh. Open that quarterly, compare it to the most recent one, and you see the cold hard numbers:
- Jun 2023: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 429,000t at an average price of US$5,431/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$3,493,000,000.
- Mar 2024: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 182,800t at an average price of US$1,034/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$285,900,000.
So in simple terms, between June 2023 and March 2024:
- Sales fell -57%
- Revenue fell -92%
- Average realized Li price fell -81%
- The share price is actually only down -60%
If you annualize their March 2024 quarterly result, the stock is actually trading on 20x EV/EBITDA. So unless the lithium price recovers soon, this trend could continue. Be wary of people who carry on like "the share price has halved" as though that means it's a buying opportunity - they too are completely missing the point.
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$5.31 |
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Mkt cap ! $4.021B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$5.26 | $5.39 | $5.26 | $10.00M | 1.881M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 17916 | $5.31 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$5.33 | 15386 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 17916 | 5.310 |
4 | 2372 | 5.300 |
2 | 3746 | 5.290 |
4 | 6943 | 5.280 |
4 | 48793 | 5.270 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.330 | 15386 | 1 |
5.340 | 65103 | 7 |
5.350 | 27863 | 6 |
5.360 | 9909 | 1 |
5.370 | 1700 | 2 |
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