IGO 0.76% $5.31 igo limited

There is far too much price anchoring happening on these...

  1. 5,098 Posts.
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    There is far too much price anchoring happening on these threads. People remember the stock being $16 or $11 and think that means $6 is cheap. This is completely missing the obvious: the stock is de-rating in line with the fundamentals. A year ago, the stock was heading into the end of June at $15/sh. Open that quarterly, compare it to the most recent one, and you see the cold hard numbers:

    • Jun 2023: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 429,000t at an average price of US$5,431/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$3,493,000,000.
    • Mar 2024: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 182,800t at an average price of US$1,034/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$285,900,000.

    So in simple terms, between June 2023 and March 2024:
    - Sales fell -57%
    - Revenue fell -92%
    - Average realized Li price fell -81%
    - The share price is actually only down -60%

    If you annualize their March 2024 quarterly result, the stock is actually trading on 20x EV/EBITDA. So unless the lithium price recovers soon, this trend could continue. Be wary of people who carry on like "the share price has halved" as though that means it's a buying opportunity - they too are completely missing the point.
    Last edited by mondyinvest: 17/06/24
 
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$5.31
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