HC discovery means gas+condensate. Gas well is purely gas. Nearby wells have produced low amounts of condensate, hence the HC angle.
Thunderbird
At this stage, translating Z-1 potential for in terms of cents/share (pre-drill) works as below,
SayGas In Place: 18Tcf Recovery: 20% (gives 3.6tcf) MEO's equity: 35% MEO's share of GIP: 1.26tcf or 1260 bcf Gas price of $0.10c/mcf Unrisked value of A$126m Shares issued: 417.3million Unrisked Value cents/share: 126/417.3 = 0.302c/share. Risked Value: At 10%, we get 0.0302c/share.
On a commercial discovery, once field size & estimates are established, then the A$7 comes into the equation.
So MEO's share of, 1260 bcf (or 1.26tcf) times $7 gives us A$8.82b unrisked value, makes sense. One can make the model complex as u want, however the fundamentals dont change.
cheers
MEO Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held