Here are some of my thoughts on this Research Note;- Would agree...

Here are some of my thoughts on this Research Note;

- Would agree with aabbaadd on the timing, quite a few parts of the report reference May data (eg. Figure 2 on Page 14). It almost appears that the report was initially written in mid-June 2019 and then updated this past week

- Page 3, 3rd paragraph; "Central is entering a period of positive operating cash flow for the first time in years." I suspect that should read "for the first time ever".

- Page 4, 2nd paragraph, 2nd sentence; "The reality is that in this part of the Surat coal seam gas fairway, close to 100% of the 2C will convert to 2P, and if that happens, we would be valuing Central's share of Project Range at 135PJ x $=A$1.79/GJ or A$240 (A$0.34/sh). Effectively, the valuation in Table 1 represents a 52% risked valuation". So on one hand they prepare the valuation based on a comparative metric indicating Range will only provide 140PJ, but immediately turn around and then state they expect a lot closer to the full 270PJ. The difference is worth 16 cents, which is very significant.

- Interesting to compare the Morgans Research note of 15 March 2019 to this one. At the time they valued Range as having 134PJ overall, with 77PJ to CTP share and then risked at A$0.05/GJ to obtain a value of A$0.05/share. Understand Morgans have last week updated their valuation by a whopping 3 cents. I haven't seen a copy but it seems like a low update if they went from 134PJ to 270PJ.

- Speaking of comparisons, Morgans at least valued Dukas at A$0.01/share, while Breakway didn't value it at all. The title of their Table 3 hints at "upside potential from exploration at Dukas & Range" but then this data doesn't materialize

- On one hand Breakaway note on a number of occasions that they anticipate CTP's cost of debt coming down, which is aligned with the message from the upcoming senior debt re-financing which we are all waiting for. On the other hand, why are financing costs indicated as so high in FY20 & FY21 in Table 9?

- Page 11, 1st paragraph mentions 10TJ/day of the 2019 Gas Sales Agreement Stage 2 "if contracted"; anyone know why this isn't contracted yet?

It would appear that CTP has commissioned this Research Note, so let's hope they use it. If 80% of the Range 2C converts to 2P, then the target SP goes to 43 cents, and the recent drilling at Dukas must have provided some de-risking. Considering typical control premiums, the board would have some serious explaining if they entertained any takeover offers under 50 cents...