All is speculative at this stage. I'm just going on what...

All is speculative at this stage. I'm just going on what management has said. I assume they've taken their cost savings into account in their recent guidance.

The year isn't even half gone. Nobody knows what will happen between now and Dec 09. However, if things keep going the way management are saying they will, there is every chance they will breach their debt convenants. That was the main point of my post.

They are required to keep Total Debt/EBITDA to more than 3.75. At a debt level of, say $750m by 30 June 09, they would need to be on track for an annual 09 EBITDA of more than $200m in order to avoid breaching covenants.

So, whether they have NPAT earnings of 2c or 6c per share isn't the focus. EBITDA is the only game in town for BLY, because any company which is in danger of being left at the mercy of a banking syndicate at the moment is potentially in deep crap.

That was my fundamental point. It was only when I thought that BuyNHold might be confusing Commsec's earnings forcasts with BLY management's EBITDA forecasts that I made the point about earnings being 1c-2c per share. That was reached taking the midpoint of management's estimates.

In the first instance, I was not to try and pinpoint earnings down to the last $10m, $20m or even $50m. It could still be anything, because there are still 8 months to go.

IMO, Total Debt/EBITDA of +3.75 by 30 June 09 is all that matters. That's 10 weeks away. Rabbit-out-of-hat time, or at the mercy of the bankers.