If revenues are 40% lower than last year's $1.839bn, they will be $1.104bn. EBITDA of 12% is $132m. That's before restructuring charges (previously announced of $80m, plus just announced of $10m).
Company has added $33m in borrowings since 31 Dec 08, to $797m total. There are two debt covenants: that Net Debt/EBITDA stay below 3.75 and that EBITDA/Interest Expense remain above 3.0. Each is tested in June and Dec of a given year.
Based on the estimates in the first paragraph above, $797m/$132m = 6.04. The company would be in breach of its debt covenants. Assuming interest paid will be in the order of $40m, $132m/$40m = 3.30. A close shave.
It's the total debt to EBITDA which is the nasty one.
They had been planning for scenarios were revenues were 25%-50% below 2008. Looks like it will be in the lower end of expectations.
They are hoping restructurig will be finalised by the end of 2009, so no short-term relief for shareholders there.
All in all, I can't see this is a very good update.
new announcement!!!, page-7
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