'Using the comparable deals and their structure, we forecast that trofinetide for Rett and Fragile X and including provision for potential other indications can get licensed for a total deal package of US$680m, including US$50m in upfront payment in CY2H17. We also expect tiered double digit royalties could be part of the deal ranging from 15%-25%. For conservatism sake, we model a flat rate of 15% now. While we believe US$680m is a reasonable assumption for the dollar value trofinetide may fetch, we note that our assumptions could be conservative given the high value of some of the region specific deals and the likelihood that follow on compound NNZ-2591 is likely to be part of a deal.'
Pretty decent summation of the potential we have here. When you start to digest those numbers and remember the recent commentary in announcements and the primary endpoint of this trial is safety, a current MC of ~130m represents great value.
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