Posted again with formatting of the table corrected
I've updated my forward projections using projected gas/oil sales up to end of 2019 (See table at bottom for full details), including the ramp up to NEGI in 2018.
Summary
The company will be fine cashflow till NEGI and will make a large profit once NEGI spins up with share price potentially reaching up to $3 in 2019 based on NEGI sales (assuming CTP take up full 22PJpa of sales).
Key Assumptions
Column 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 SUMMARY Half 1 Half 2 Half 1 Half 2 Half 1 Half 2 Half 1 Half 2 Half 1 Half 2 2 Gross Profit before exploration costs and tax -2,846 -3,463 4,118 244 7,210 636 24,838 38,386 62,196 63,085 3 Projected Cash at end of Half Yearly (x1000) 3,516 16,257 19,966 15,311 17,623 13,361 25,614 41,414 87,689 118,188 4 Loan Balance at end of Half Yearly (x1000) 88,809 86,653 84,341 82,029 79,717 69,717 49,717 29,717 -283 5 Projected share price based on P/E=10 ; 0.10 0.17 0.18 0.59 1.46 2.32 2.89 2.91
$15 M from MBL agreement (but could be as high as $32M)
Gas/oil volumes from half yearlys and current gas/oil prices deduced from half yearlys
Current gas sold at average $6.9/GJ and production cost of $3.35/GJ (this has been calculated from info in half yearly)
Current oil sold at approx $59 bbl with production cost of $29bbl (again from info in half yearly)
Assumed NEGI gas sales will gradually ramp in over 2018 with 22PJ/pa in 2019 at a price of $9/GJ (a guess)
Assumed same production costs during NEGI of $3.35/GJ
Assumed loan will be fully payed off in 2018/2019 when they have plenty of cash
Assumed gradual increase of oil price and Surprise will kick back in (not important assumption)
Other assumptions can be seen in the spreadsheet below
There is no guarantee that these tables are error free (do your own research)
Full details in this google sheet
Summaries are at the top
At bottom is table of oil and gas sales and price projections which are used to populate the quarterly projection figures (second table from bottom)
The top two tables half yearly summaries based on the quarterly projections
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