I stumbled across two "visualisations" that somehow show the...

I stumbled across two "visualisations" that somehow show the whole dilemma of a future copper price development very well. At least from my point of view.

If the "electrification" or "energy transition" is true, then the demand for copper would have to increase massively. Not immediately, but exponentially from 2030 at the latest.

The dilemma seems to me to be the following: At the moment, no mining company seems willing to invest large amounts of money in exploration or new projects. On the other hand, we know that it takes many years to bring a mine into production. It's a bit like the question of the chicken and the egg. Which came first?

In other words: Nobody really wants to invest even though they know that demand will increase. In other words, investments will only be made when the CU price rises - the longer it takes for this to happen, the bigger the gap between supply and demand will be - so the price will rise sharply when this situation is reached at the latest. But then it's actually too late - because you can't increase supply (production) at the push of a button. There is a further "delay".

I therefore also understand Friedland (Ivanhoe Mines), who spoke of a tenfold increase in the price of copper. Of course, these are exaggerated assumptions that belong in the land of fairy tales. However, something is not entirely consistent. For something to "happen", the incentive to invest in mines would actually have to rise the CU price sharply over the next 1-2 years. This means that the assumption that the copper price will rise massively by 2025 might not be so wrong.

Then at the latest certain deposits become interesting (e.g. Kalman, but of course also others - SPECIFICALLY around Mt. Isa - where - AS WE KNOW - the corresponding ex-Glencore infrastructure would also still be available to push ahead with "certain" plans (consolidation plans....).

This also gives the age-old "Kalman hub idea" a certain boost again - at least in such a scenario.

It really is like the chicken and the egg. As an investor, you could simply wait and see. On the other hand, I ask myself: What happens if, for example, the CU price does rise to USD/ton 10000 in the next 3 months or to 12000 in the course of 2024? What leverage would that have on the SP of HMX (or other "juniors")?

The 2nd visualization also shows in a dramatic way that the large mines will probably soon have reached the end of their lifespan. WHERE will all the copper come from that we will probably need in the future?I leave all these questions unanswered and am very curious to see what the HMX team can pull out of the hat in the coming weeks and months. DYOR and I wish you all a great weekend.