MSB 1.34% $1.51 mesoblast limited

New Covid 19 treatment, page-189

  1. 259 Posts.
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    I agree that hard to predict share price with more speculative biotechnology stocks. However our recent dealing with the FDA are becoming more cordial and we are getting a clearer way forward re potency assays and potentially progressing Remestemcel for aGVHD to full approval. Also because we are closer than ever to approval in US (and have history of sales in Japan) we have taken a lot of the risk off the table in terms with partnering or take over bid from Novartis. I think for this reason, and the fact that we are progressing on many fronts gives us a positive story in terms of future net cash flows which should be taken into consideration when making a take-over bid. I agree they will first offer a low ball bid if they are interested in total control of our technology (but I think this will be knocked back as we are in a position with relatively lower risk - if OTAT happy and Remestemel approval for aGVHD - and control excellent Intellectual Property profile for what may be a very in demand portfolio - life saving technology with excellent safety profile when all else has failed, stemming disease progression and may even reverse in some instances in big markets too etc).

    I have included a forecast valuation from Edison Investment Research and IMO it still seems reasonably up to date (in broad strokes) regarding future cash flows and timelines - therefore IMO a more accurate valuation than a low ball bid under $3 per share.

    At 30 Nov 2020 they reported a valuation for MSB A$4.9bn or A$8.41 per share. I am sure SI has at least this figure in mind knowing we are at an important inflection point with positive OTAT meeting, agvhd approval and way forward with other indications.

    Good Luck Holders!!!
 
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