KG.It was candidly pointed out in prior discussions that history...

KG.

It was candidly pointed out in prior discussions that history does not repeat it rhymes... and in this case we are seeing a change in Global economic Power, a cross the oceans change to China.

The US is not flattening... you can not look at mere graphs and say if it's 50% of it in 1930 or 1970 (or whatever).... it's going to be 50% of it now... that's totally ridiculous... the reason is simple...

If a car's real worth (inflation adjusted) is let's say $10, then if the car is purchased for $20 in 1970 and falls back to $10 then it has fallen by 50%. But if the price purchased was $50 in 2008 does it only fall back to $25 (ie 50%) ? - I think you know the answer to this one.

In the same way you can not take a non-inflation adjusted linear graph and say it fell 50% then so it's going to fall 50% now... that's why we eed to look at the underlying values and adjust the values to a rational PE basis and then compare.. this is why Shiller's model is so much more relevant... see the post here How Low can America go?