new day dawning for vpg

I get the distinct feeling that change is upon VPG.

A few things I have observed:-

1. Media Hostility - In the past i have posted about the hostile media attitude towards VPG. I get the feeling the media (just like a rouge croc) has finished playing with VPG and moved onto the next thing. Just over the past month or so any article about leasing, sales, etc have had a neutral or slightly positive tone.

2. LVR confirmation - Confirmation from the banks that VPG has met the required LVR covenants should be any day. VPG are very confident of this and I dont't believe Hurley would go on the public record with this if he didn't already know the answer. that confirmation is the trigger for extension of the Australian debt for a further 12 months. That is a significant achievement for VPG and eliminates further medium term risk. All good signs!

3. Half yearly Earnings - Late Feb will see the half yearly results announced. MY opinion is that the losses are behind us and it's back to core business of asset management and fee earning. My prediction is we will be making a small profit or at worst a break even for the 6 months. No science to that statement just intuition.

4. Guidence - The Feb announcement will also include some guidence for future earnings and dividends. Even if VPG confirm that we are profitable I don't believe dividends will be immediately reinstated. Any surplus cash will continue to be applied to debt reduction. However that will be short lived. Once Earnings are deemed to be stable VPG will be able to roll over debt or possibly re finance in 12 months from now. At that point, there is a good chance a small dividend may trickle to us investors.

So in summary I believe the danger is over, stabilisation is occuring or has alreaady occurred and positive earnings are now visibly on tomorrows horizon. AS soon as a few of these theories are confirmed, investor confidence will once again return and we will see amazing and rapid share price escalation.

My thoughts only - GLTA - DYOR.