New DCF Valuation Model

REPOST .... ERROR in prior post

Not my favorite methodology for figuring out "value" but hopefully somewhat useful.

Using a basic DCF 5yr estimates for Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, an exit rate Rev multiple to calculate "terminal value" and then a discount rate to get us back to Present Value (PV) .... those are the blue numbers

I used PFS Integrated Project (IP) and Merchant Project (MP) EBITDA and Capex numbers and the LOM EBITDA ./ Rev to calc margin to estimate the revenue. Assumption IP completed mid 2023 (so EBITDA = $109 (50% off $218), and steady state thereafter) and MP completes 1 year later. Same spread on EBITDA on that also. Likewise for CapEx.

In the Low/High/Midpoint scenarios I've used that to mimic potential JV/Debt combo ... so the lowest equity valuation occurs when we sell off 50% of project take and on $0 debt. Highest valuation occurs when we retain higher ownership of the project but take on the largest debt ($400M). Debt is assumed to remain on balance sheet as term debt and an interest rate (10%) adjustment is made to FCF.

Remember this is only a simplistic model ... heavily reliant on the exit rate multiple and D/E relationship. Anything is possible.

Hope it helps. Argue the inputs. Share price and counts are US$ and as if all shares are ADSs