going back 6 months, the market saw no credible path to success...

going back 6 months, the market saw no credible path to success and sold it to shell status.

fast fwd to present the day and add the very positive commentary from k-coal among the many running their ruler over both coldly and matmor and the market is now clearly factoring in a small possibility of commercial success and one would think a fair value at this juncture of around the 20 million cap range is likely.

if just one of the players puts pen to paper, not only will the market factor in the success of that particular deal via the projection of p/e's ratios but will offer far more due to the instantly accepted credibility of validating the ip on the international stage….imho, just one signature should produce a cap of between 50 and 100 million.

i don't wan't to get too far ahead but now is the time to set oneself for a 12 timeframe due to our 50% capital gains tax discount.

the big question is, do i load up on the oppies or the heads?

if all goes well regarding the above mentioned scenario and are ascribed a cap of say, 100 million….or around 5 cents per head fully diluted.

from here…$5000 on the heads at say 1.2 cents = 416,666 esi's.
" " ….$5000 on oppies at say 0.006 cents=833,333 esio's.

if the heads trade at 5 cents, the gain would be $15,833…3 bagger.
with long dated oppies, they would probably trade at about 3.3 cents so the gain would be $22,500…4.5 bagger.

have you guys done similar calcs?


ps….what about this, esi given the 1 billion cap of wec…the 833,333 oppies are worth $225,000 and the heads, $158,330…..dare to dream!!!!

ps2…i suspect this is why we're seeing quite a few smallish holdings going through in amongst the biggies….it's for just in case they hit the big time.