Cbob should be congratulated, he has just singlehandedly torpedoed any chance of a reasonable return on CTP shares for the foreseeable future or possibly forever . As I look now, today 476,000 shares have been traded and the buyer offer is 14.5 cents. Some time ago I more or less resolved to vote against the SoA on the grounds that the offer was neither fair nor reasonable, and the CVNs were essentially worthless. A poster, I forget who, suggested a good strategy would be to sell at 20 cents (when this was still offering), wait for the SP crash after the SoA was voted down, buy back and wait until the existing board restored value.
This seemed like a good idea until the optionco board was announced and the 249D got up. Having taken note of the comments provided by the existing board on the merits of the proposed candidates, this did not seem so attractive anymore. What may have been a temporary decline appeared more likely to be a race for the bottom, and probably for a long time. After all, if the current experienced board could not raise funds from investors, how could this crew expect to be more successful. Which meant a cash raising appeal to existing shareholders. Whereas I would have been favourably inclined to subscribe with the existing board in place, it did not seem very prudent to trust more good money to an untried team. However now that Cbob has been unable to resist meddling, and coming forward with a supposed MOU for $100 million and another set of hopefuls including the previous MD, the market seems to have judged the situation accordingly. As others on this forum have noted, MOU's are a dime a dozen, not legally binding and usually resorted to as a promotional PR exercise. All this latest intervention guarantees is a period of huge uncertainty, probably an inability to raise real funds together with a formidable resistance in the market to commit to further contracts with Central.
As far as I can see it, there are now only two reasonable future avenues open.
The first is for the SoA to be voted down, and the 249D spill proposals to fail. The spill proposals will require a 50% vote to succeed which is somewhat easier to reach than the requirements for the SoA to be approved. At the moment, given the resistance to the SoA it is kind of hard to estimate the chances of this. If it passes, the race to the bottomless pit will be on for young and old.
The second is to vote for the SoA, thereby avoid punting on the spill and at least salvage some value from the wreckage. The 20 cent bid may be a huge undervaluation of the company, and accepted very reluctantly, but it is at least some cash that can be put to better use than sitting back and watching the SP head to a few cents at best for probably a very long time.
I do not like the deal, but I have now voted in favour of the SoA. Thank you CB for providing the final justification for this decision.
I do hope this is helpful for those who share my unhappiness with the deal, but pure raw pragmatism can provide a useful balance to a desire for indignant vengeance.
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