SGH (ASX) New Directions

Originally posted by Melrosian ↑

Ausbert
To be serious for a mo, I actually find it asssstonishing that the press can't seem to work out that:

1. the reduction in case throughput ( Wilson Research) C 15%, together with WIP write downs
2. the NIHL settlements, whatever they are, July 16 - June 17 will, since WIP valued at zero, be 90% profit and
since they are exiting 90% of NIHL acivity, will be materially cash positive

& combined should make a very big dent in the debt mountain.

The Commentariat can quite fairly speculate about the most optimistic and most pessimistic quantity of + ve CASH coming , but that it is difficult to see debt remaining above $500M by June 17. balanced too to note that management absolutely have to pull the right levers to make it happen.

It might be balanced financial commentary to be clear that $500 M debt on £1b turnover is an affordable amount which might be reduced to$300m 5 years after taking over QPP PSD. It would be balanced too that
new capital might be needed to get SGH bank on a growth path in 1-2 years. In context - does not need to be huge ( $50M). The map to $500M debt is very easy to work out.

Balanced to note the gap between normal ( well Redde PER is over 19) which might be C 12 PER, and current forward PE R of 0.425 implies an sp recovery of 28 times current SP when debt is seen to be under control and affordable.

If the press have a duty to ensure balanced observations and can see they the sitrep is overbalanced and nearly upside down, then a bit more balance would help.

Mel

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No analyst has the spine to look at what can happen under those scenarios. They will start talking about it when the SGH stock price is already factoring in all these things. B4 that they will remain blind to all the good things that can happen here.
But u as well as many know that those who have sold it way way higher will jump in soon when survival is confirmed and add more when turn around is confirmed.
What do u think WILL HAPPEN TO STOCK PRICE if SURVIVAL AND TURNAROUND Are confirmed at the same time.
Keep guessing and smiling.