I have done extensive modeling on this company's income and dont get to EPS of 4.1c from the midpoint of their forecasts it gets to 3.1c. Do not take the second half of last year as a benchmark for the second half - It was a very unusual year as the MD identified in that a number of items that should have landed in the first half got rolled over to the second half. $4million EBITDA (which is what they have put as the upper end of their forecast - NOT EBIT wont give 4c - I have taken the 1.3c EPS first half and added around 1.8c to give an EPS of just over 3c - given the growth and the momentum I expect it to be in the range 60c to 70c ( 20PE or thereabouts) after the annual results but it still has to do more to get to a $1.00 or 90c.
I am very cautious about setting unrealistic objectives as this is still a microcap and and disappointed selling will create undue pressure and thats not what a long term investor wants. Its fair value around this level to 60c and I think that in fact its got a great future but I dont want to see this ramped as many sold out last year when it dropped because a few larger sellers decided to sell and ignored the opportunity. I think a lot of investors got cold feet as well and bailed just at the wrong time only to see this double over the next 8 months.
PGC Price at posting:
54.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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