new forecast, page-18

Hi westcott,

How do you figure FMG's supply would come off the market with 2 years of $60p/t prices?

Please consider the following;

- At last count in December 2014 FMG had $2Bn cash on hand to ride out IO price turbulence.

- FMG owns it's infrastructure. This could easily be partially or fully sold to raise further funds if required.

- According to FMG's latest presentation, all in costs are equivalent to US$51/dmt.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141202/pdf/42v6tnnnv8z33b.pdf (Pages 9 & 25)

FMG would survive two years of $60p/t prices. It wouldn't be all that pretty as far as profits or market capitalisation are concerned, but they would still be around.

What 'others' are you talking about that will have to close their mines, that would have any real affect on IO supply figures?

The only miners that would affect the demand/supply imbalance if they shut over the next 2 years are BHP, RIO, Vale & FMG, but they will also survive $60p/t prices.

Golly westcott, rather than tread water at $60-$70p/t prices, BHP, RIO & Vale have MORE production coming online over the next 2 years.

Roy Hill is coming fully online over the next few years, another 55mt is it?

Higher cost miners like AGO and African outfits that may/have shut up shop won't have any affect whatsoever on the demand/supply imbalance.

Good luck!