Hi all,Having gotten out of another goldie after the worst...

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    Hi all,

    Having gotten out of another goldie after the worst takeover deal imaginable, I have siphoned my funds over here. I have had my eyes on this for quite awhile and I was hoping to get onto this before its inevitable upward price move. My reasons:

    Market cap: 875 million
    Cash + liquid assets: 240 million
    Long-term debt: 50 million
    Enterprise value: 685 million

    200,000 ounces/yr average
    Cash costs (conservative) of 700 USD/ounce
    137000 ounces forward sold (I think they are out by next yr)

    Say average price received of 1200/ounce (look at the last few quarterlies)
    Operating margin of 500 USD/ounce
    500*200000 ounces= 100 million USD
    = 95 million AUD
    NPAT of 95 million as there is a 6 year TAX-FREE holiday.

    With a required return of 10%
    Gives an EV of 950 million
    Add 190 million (cash + liquid assets - debt)
    = 1140 million

    1140/331 million shares = 3.45 share

    Not to mention that when the hedges are sold out, the profit skyrockets (same calculations above with margin of 800/ounce gives 5.40/share).

    Not to mention:
    10 million Oz resources + reserves Masbate
    Exploration upside Masbate
    What looks like another giant in King King
    Increasing mill output to 6.5MTPA (although currently processing above design requirements at 6MTPA!) with a subsequent upgrade to 10MTPA
    Much better
    And did I forget the 6 year tax free holiday!


 
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