Here's the contra-TB counterpoint.An interesting Indo Ni...

Here's the contra-TB counterpoint.

An interesting Indo Ni infographic contained within today's feeds:


(https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/040224-infographic-indonesia-nickel-mining-esg-battery-demand-metals)

It provides a very interesting visual of just how much additional Indo/China Ni production capacity is planned for the next six years.

I pay v.little attention to forecasts relating to when a market may achieve supply/demand balance. Forecasting the future as to precisely what will happen and by when is fraught to the point of being useless, imo (i.e. the future rarely pans out precisely as forecast, so pundits tend to recast their estimates at a later point in time another 'x' years into the future).
What interests me more is the broad trend that Indo/China has reaffirmed its intention to continue the dramatic ramp-up of Ni supply dominance to the detriment of higher-cost traditional sulphide producers. Given what they have actually done thus far, it would be brave to dismiss it as fearmongering jawboning.

Indo is part-way through recasting the Ni market for an extended period of low prices (years and years*), in order to maximise the attractiveness of Ni-rich battery chemistries to the extent that it can exert influence (via lower pricing through weight of supply) and also attract in-country direct downstream investment from the key battery and OEM players who are keen to purchase their inputs for the lowest possible cost. Symbiosis. It's a clever integrated strategic policy approach that has left Australian Ni in the dust.

*Sans any unforeseeable black swan events (eg: material supply interruptions, perhaps caused by natural disasters, etc...)

Meanwhile, POS is in the process of selling (still conditional) part of the portfolio to fund ongoing G&A consumption. I expect that LJ was the most valuable asset, so it will be interesting to see how the company (and SP) goes over the next 24 months while it consumes the proceeds of that asset sale.
LJ royalties (of sorts) might flow one day, but wont be a source of income replacement within the ~24-month cash runway because MIN will need to first find and prove-up an economic Li deposit from the POS tenement package included in the LJ sale and then commence mining and processing it within that time frame. That's simply impractical, assuming it finds any Li at all.
What is far more likely is MIN possibly refurbing/upgrading the LJ plant to commence spod conc. production within 24 months using ore from already-known Li deposits outside the POS tenement package (i.e. production what will not be subject to royalty payments to POS).
The Windarra water rights promises to add a small amount of recurring income, but that's still an open question.
Windarra gold tailings haven't been factored because that's still a very light Blue Sky open question. The last sale was, unsurprisingly, for an pretty inconsequential amount. With AUD spot Au having improved by 50% since the FS, along with an associated cost-base uplift, there might be scope to improve a sale price a bit but unlikely to be material in nature, imo. Every little bit helps, though.

The market has already performed its mark-to-market derate for POS. Unless there's some kind of magic pivot to something that can provide a tailwind to inspire the market, sans LJ (Li) since it will have sold, good ol' POS is destined for Zombyland over the next two years and beyond (i.e. until the next asset sale for G&A).
In assessing the likelihood/chances of a material turnaround I think punters would do well to look the current composition of the Board and CEO and assess their history of meaningful needle-moving value creation. (Selling an asset in a distressed market for more than it was purchased by previous managers at the bottom of the last cycle doesn't count. That particular value-add belongs to those involved in the 2014 purchase. The market, per the current flatlined SP, appears to agree.)


PS. CJ has returned to his Au roots, per today's announcement from SPR of his COO appointment. Wise move.