new hartleys report, page-20

*stretches before writing this one*

As so often is the case people forget or don't understand the time value of money concept and discount rates.

No one values Namibia at a present value of $60 million. This has to be adjusted for the time value of money and then numerous risks must be incorporated into the discount rate.

Namibia is far from $60 million on the books.

The amazing thing is that people expect PCL to be worth as much as it was when Mbawa was being drilled.

Mbawa was estimated as 2 billion barrels of estimated recoverable reserves , which placed PCL's interest at a whopping 200 Million barrels. Hence PCL was valued at ~$120 million during the well campaign.

Sunbird is estimated at 800 million barrels of oil in place and at a recovery factor of 25% and a share of 18.75% (will be reduced with unitisation), PCL's share will be 37.5 million barrels.

For less than 25% of Mbawa's estimated reward people expect PCL to now trade at the same prices PCL traded at during Mbawa.

In addition, at the time of Mbawa we knew BG were around the corner with a dual well program. How much of that contributed to the value of PCL? Very little until announcements of rig slots and firm commitments. On that note I ask, how can Namibia be valued at a present value of $60 million?

Cease the emotion, think rationally and you will understand that PCL is fairly valued at somewhere between 4-5 cents.

Once again it's sad to see PCL threads full of rampers who are red faced after entering higher than the current share price.

Once again good luck to all!