I have pasted below the Newcastle coal nearby month futures trend for the last 12 years and note that we are at a high. Does anyone know how significant is the volume trend (purple line at bottom)? Is it proportional to the NEWC traded volumes? I note that it has not gone up with the higher price as occurred in 2010 and 2011. The peak volume is 2015-2016 which coincided with a slump in coal price.
Scratching around the barchart site suggests (regarding bottom of image): purple line = open interest small green bars = up volume small red bars = down volume
IMHO: If the volume is proportional to the international traded volumes, then: - in 2010-2011 as prices rose the supply increased until eventually prices dropped. - in 2014-2016 further supply swamped the market causing prices to plummet. - a similar price/supply response happened in 2017. - however in 2021 the price is rocketing and volume (supply) is staying low. Is this due to underinvestment forced by the climate change lobby? If so, confirms prices are going to stay up higher for longer.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)