In case anyone is wondering why we're up 3% today, some relevant coal pricing comments from WHC's quarterly released today:
Comments from MD and CEO Paul Flynn
“Coal prices staged a remarkable recovery over the quarter, responding to increased economic
activity as well as continuing supply-side constraints. “Prices for high-CV thermal are at 10-year highs,
and we will begin to see this materialise into strong free cash flow over the coming months.
Realised Pricing on own coal sales
The gC NEWC (6000 NCV) index averaged US$109/t in the June quarter, up 23% from the March quarter average of
US$89/t. The surging gC NEWC index price is the result of strong demand for high quality energy (LNG and >6000kcal
thermal coal) in a supply constrained market. Industrial activity has increased markedly as the global economy seeks to
recover from the impact of COVID-19, which has resulted in a rapid increase in the demand for high energy coal for both
power generation and industrial processes. Disruptions have occurred across multiple supply chains and constraints in the
Newcastle coal supply chain have added to the tightening of supply. Strong demand from Korea and India has driven a
recent rally in the API5 (5500 NCV) index price.
The 166% rise in gC NEWC prices, between the low monthly average of August 2020 at US$49.78/t to US$132.42/t in the
last week of June 2021, has been the main driver of the short-term disparity between index price and achieved
price. Whitehaven achieved a June quarter realised average thermal coal price of US$94/t while the June quarter gC
NEWC Index averaged US$109/t.
Metallurgical sales represented 12% of sales for the quarter. Spot demand for semi-soft coking coal remains weak and price
realisations for high-CV thermal coal are far superior to semi-soft coking coal, which favours a strategy of selling this highCV coal into the thermal coal market.
Thermal and Metallurgical Coal Outlook
China’s ban on Australian-origin coal continues, however, strong Asian seaborne thermal coal demand has resulted in gC
NEWC coal prices rising 166% between August 2020 and the last week of June 2021. There are no signs of demand
weakening, natural gas prices are high and a strong summer demand period is forecast for northern Asia.
Availability of High-CV thermal coal is tight on strong spot demand from end users, and for coal blending by coal producers
and traders. This has resulted in a 25% increase in the gC NEWC index price over the past quarter and a 164% increase
from July 2020, in line with strong underlying demand. Despite the API5 index improvement in the quarter, the differential
between API5 index and gC NEWC index reached a record high of ~US$55/t in June. Tendering from Asia-based customers
was very active across the quarter with the most noteworthy buyer being Taiwanese electricity generator, Taipower, who
came to the market for 45 panamax vessels (3.6Mt) for May to August delivery. China continues to supplement its domestic
thermal coal production with Indonesian, Russian and South African coal imports, placing further upward pressure on the gC
NEWC index. All thermal coal supply remains tight in the September quarter, as reflected across all price indices.
Metallurgical coal prices have also surged in the June quarter reflecting strong demand from steelmakers and supply
constraints from major producers in Queensland. Hard coking coal increased from approximately US$110.00/t to
approximately US$200.00/t in the June quarter, while the backward-looking JSM quarterly semi-soft coking coal benchmark
price was settled at US$93.00/t. The backward-looking metallurgical coal price indices are expected to improve in the
September quarter.
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