New horizons for TBA, page-29

We’re heading into September this week, so it’s a good time to revisit the historic seasonality of gold and gold stocks.

Over the past four decades, September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. You can see this on the chart below—in a typical year, the price of gold in September rises 2.5 percent above its August price.

The gold price has risen in 75% of Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.

What accounts for this predictable trend?

September kicks off several of the planet’s most potent gold-demand drivers:

• The post-monsoon wedding season in India and Diwali, one of the country’s most important festivals;
• Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States;
• The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving;
• And in China, the week-long National Day celebration starting October