Actually, I think this is the first time since Ross Murdoch and...

Actually, I think this is the first time since Ross Murdoch and the new Board took over that the company has provided an estimate of both launch dates and peak sales estimates for the TPM opioid patches, although there was an estimate of both provided in February’s Van Leeuwenhoeck Update Report, which I assume was written following a company briefing.

With respect to the launch dates, the Van Leeuwenhoeck analyst estimated 2020 for both products. But as the oxymorphone patch needs to complete Phase 1 again, it is logical to expect that it will take longer to get to market than the oxycodone patch. Probably no need to state the bleeding obvious that any launch of either product is dependent on a licensing deal being struck. Soon!

Of particular interest to me in Slide 9 of the presentation was the estimate of peak sales for the two patches.

The estimation of peak sales is very important, imo. This metric is not only used by analysts in calculating company value and shareprice, but is also vital to the calculation of product licence or company acquisition deals. Given the negotiations and partnering discussions which have been occurring this year with Terumo and other companies, I think it’s probable that these latest peak sales figures are those upon which negotiations and partnering discussions have been based.

When comparing this month’s peak sales estimates with those provided in the February 2016 Van Leeuwenhoeck Update Report, I note that there isn’t a huge difference in the peak sales estimate for the TPM/Oxycodone patch. Phosphagenics has calculated $500 million +; the February report arrived at USD 500 million, although it’s possible that this might be for the US market only.

The big difference I noted is in the estimated peak sales for the TPM/Oxymorphone patch. In valuing this asset, an assumption of peak sales of USD 75 million was used in the February report. As with the oxycodone patch, it’s possible that this estimate may have been for the US market only. Nonetheless, the USD 75 million figure is well below the $350 million peak sales estimate provided in this month’s company presentation. Encouragingly, the latter figure is likely to be better informed.