new jefferies report - a biased view lol, page-27

It looks like the bot liked the report also, chipping away at little buys.could see 80c soon....

Page 24 of the report shows the dramatic impact of the widely spoken about patent cliff the sales of the drug Lovenox that Sanofi had originally targeted for the Unifill has been severely impacted, if the Unifill can be proved to regain the lost market share for Sanofi the revenue figures quoted in the report will be blown out of the water.The PA site wont be big enough!

One alternative being utilized is the adoption of
injectable drug delivery technologies which allows for exclusivity extension on the
grounds of added therapeutic benefits. Key adoption examples include Amgen’s (AMGN,
$64.21, Buy) Enbrel, Abbott’s (ABT, $56.23, Buy) Humira, and Sanofi’s Lovenox, all of
which are now supplied either within a prefilled syringe or autoinjector. With the
blockbuster patent cliff coming, an increasing number of existing brands are expected to
pursue sophisticated delivery technologies—which will support Unilife’s pipeline growth,
product commercialization, and ultimately revenue and profits.
Sanofi’s Lovenox is good case study on the effects that branded patent expiries could
have on Unilife’s business. Sanofi is the dominant player within the global heparins
market via sales of Lovenox, which accounted for approximately 90% of prescriptions
generating approximately $4.1 billion in revenue. Sanofi has elected to not quantify the
impact of generic competition on Lovenox now that competing products are entering the
market prior to the official 2012 patent expiry after they were deemed unenforceable in
US appeals court in May ’08. Competition is likely to commence from the combination of
Momenta (MNTA, $17.39, NC) and Novartis-Sandoz initially after beating out Teva (TEVA,
$40.36, Hold) as the first generic alternative. Further competition is likely to come from
the combination of Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI, $60.34, Hold) and Amphastar (private)
after the latter received FDA approval for its generic to Lovenox in September 2011.
However, Watson and Amphastar were recently barred from selling its generic version of
Lovenox in the US under a federal court decision issued October 31st, 2011. The case was
brought to the judge by Novartis’ Sandoz in an effort to block Amphastar and Momenta
from entering the market. The injunction will certainly delay the entrance of a second
generic version of Lovenox, however Amphastar and Momenta are weighing there
options at the moment and cannot be precluded as potential entrants into the market
overtime. While the impact is still unclear, Lovenox script trends are already under
considerable pressure (see Chart 25 for IMS trends). In addition, we point to two
comparable generic events impacting Sanofi, the unexpected generic competition to
Eloxatin (oxaliplatin) in the US and to Plavix (clopidogrel) in the EU both in 2009, which
drove sales down to $930mn (-37.2%) and $2.1 billion (-10.4%), respectively. The chart
depicts pressure on Sanofi’s ADR shares through 2009 and following the announcement
of Amphastar’s FDA approval of generic Lovenox in Sept ’11.
Chart 25: Monthly Lovenox TRx Trends. 07-Ytd
Source: IMS Health, Jefferies.