GXY 0.00% $5.28 galaxy resources limited

“I can’t see China paying $1250 + for FOB sc5.5% for years into...

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    “I can’t see China paying $1250 + for FOB sc5.5% for years into the future.”


    If that supply shortfall that BMI (and others are starting to recognise) forecast plays out, which shows a worsening shortfall accelerating rapidly from about now, then I can certainly see potential for these prices (and higher) to persist for years more.

    As you know, new mines simply cannot be brought online in a year or two. Enough mines that demand will likely require in 2025 need to be starting development NOW; but they are not (nowhere near enough anyway).
    BEST-case, imo, is that a genie hands out $20B to miners next year and says hurry up, and we get the supply required in around 2025/26/27...
    Likelihood of this is slim-to-none imo, so the shortfall will persist, for most of this decade at least, imo.

    Imo this concept of disruptive growth, combined with the harsh realities of the real timing involved with new mining operations, requires some careful perspective to understand just what is ahead of us!

    People are typically more used to the concept of expediting manufacturing etc, when you can generally just throw money at something and get it done in a year (think Tesla factories for example). It’s a hard and long game this mining business, especially with the challenges of remote locations, approvals, etc.


    Buckle up I say, she’s gonna be a wild ride!
    Last edited by GCar: 01/08/21
 
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