Even if we take it at face value, the extra demand that started to appear around 2017 was rather “easily” countered by a bit of new spodumene supply.... hence the “burp” of supply apparently balanced out the demand “surge” and pushed prices back down...
BUT, that demand “surge” was absolutely minimal when we look at what is to come, so imo there is simply no ability to rapidly meet the upcoming surge, no matter how hard we try.
I’ve given examples before e.g. in around 2025, when the supply shortfall is forecast to be somewhere around 200ktpa, this means that we will need a NEW SDV to come online (at 25ktpa) every 6-7 weeks. And by that I mean an “SDV” that is NOT even in the planning phase now.
Read that again.
And then consider that sort of supply growth is forecast to be required, at that rate, for the rest of the decade, at least.
Does Rio have another 20 Jadars to bring online...? Nope, didn’t think so.
Can greenbushes simply double its output every year..? Nope, didn’t think so.
