Agree noomx, there are definitely trade players that see strategic value in acquiring MCP (e.g. expand product offering, access new distribution channels, access new geography). Arrotex for example would already have distribution into the chemist channel but acquiring MCP would have increased the breadth of offerings they could sell into that channel and increase their bargaining power relative to their retail chain customers. I'm sure there would have been some cost out opportunities for them too.
In terms of PE, I doubt large PE shops like PEP have interest. However, mid market PE would be doing some work on MCP at a $120m EV. If they have to pay say a 25% premium to take MCP private, it will be an EV of $150m. Lets say they use $50m debt in the cap stack, it means the equity cheque size they have to write is $100m. For a single deal, it's a bit of stretch for a number of MM PE funds but it's doable, especially if they partner up.
If MCP continues to languish, I would be quite surprised if another TO play is not made. However, in the interim the share price may just bleed lower, especially when considering MCP is still not trading that cheap when compared to historical valuation:
MCP Price at posting:
86.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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