Oh, and they need enough to pay out benefits for any permanent...

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calris

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14/01/22

15:43

Post #: 58871278
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Originally posted by calris: ↑

More likely ASIC will deregister the company for trading while insolvent before the ASX delists them. They lost ~$300k in November and had only ~$500k of available funding before Gelba's $1.5M Line of Credit runs out,

They got got $273k in Government assistance in November. The might get a little bit of outstanding Covid supplement in December, but will get nothing in January. December will definitely see an uptick in sales, but they will have to go from $1.5M to over $2M in sales to break even. A 30% increase in a single month is highly unlikely. Expect December's numbers to leave them with, my guess, $300k available cash.

January will be a bloodbath. No lockdown = No Government Assistance (hey @plough, have you noticed that Oliver's haven't closed any stores 'for the safety of their customers' in January?) You can be sure that a lot of travelers will be avoiding going in-store as much as possible. With no drive--through options, Oliver's are going to miss out on a lot of travel trade. Be interesting to see how badly their supply chain has been impacted - you can be sure that the January 4C will blame that as a one-off blip 'but all will be good next month'.

And then school goes back (National Cabinet is pushing for no delay to start of the school year, so most students will be back in the classroom by end of January). Easter isn't until mid-April - so Oliver's need to survive February and March without holiday traffic and the potential lingering impact of the Omicron wave.

Be very surprised if they make it to Easter.

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Oh, and they need enough to pay out benefits for any permanent employees before they go under. Trading without a enough Cash on Hand to cover employee benefits could see the CFO and Board in big trouble. With 4Cs being released monthly, I wonder how long before they start to see people jump ship... Hmmm, makes me wonder if that might explain some of the $800k jump in 'Staff Cost' in November.

I know the financial performance won't impact their ability to hire front-line staff, but if they ever need to fill a Senior Management or Accounts role, they might find the application pool very shallow indeed.

OLI Price at posting: 5.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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