Found what I refered to earlier.... Heres an old post from 05 September EDITS AT BOTTOM ___________________________________________________________ Quote Post: Thanks Sam,
Africa Oil has surged 87 cents (~14%) over last two days!!!..and looks to reach back over $C8.00.. !!
47 Cents (6.73%) up last night alone, at time of writing this....and closed on the high of the day at $7.77 (WangC, I hope your lucky number is 7....:)
With shares adjustments, that would be the equivalent of Swala jumping from 24.5 cents to $1.67 cents in one session!!
Go Lokichar Basin!!
What will 50% of our Kenya 12B hold for us...we will have a good idea by end of current year, and in depth knowledge early next year.
Of note:
Kenya: Africa Oil / Tullows, Kenya Licenses now estimated at 20 billion barrels+ and further exploration continues at fever pitch...(Gross Unrisked...at this stage)
What will 12B hold for us... Lets hope we get just a fraction of what other similar licenses are proving.
Tanzania:
When we get Eyasi-Wemebere (I know that's Tanzania) across the line...Eyasi-Wembere has 4 basins, each double the size of Lokichar.....so effectively 8 x the size of Lokichar. And targeting the SAME geological formations.
Not prudent to just go 8 x 1.3 Billion Barrels = ~10.4 billion barrels potential, as we need to get drill targets..... BUT even if we look at the same amount potentially, but with an increase chance of early stage success, we come up strong.
I wouldn't be dissatisfied with a couple of billion barrels :)
Rose coloured glasses...nope...they are full on dark blood red almost black:)
12B - Guesstimate (publically available information previously posted = 1.2 to 2.2 billion barrels (which is 10% of the possible trapped estimate of the 22 Billion Barrel)
K-K - Lowball Guesstimate Only = 100 Million Barrels in each of 3 basins = 300 Million Barrels (Very nicely located to gas/oil migration path as taken from offshore analysis)
Pagani - Lowball guesstimate = 150 Million Barrels in each of 2 Basins = 300 Million Barrels
Eyasi_Wembere = Lowball guesstimate = 4 basins, each with 200 million barrels = 800 Million Barrels
Zambia Block 31 = 1 barrel Zambia Block 42 = 1 barrel Zambia Block 44 = 1 barrel Zambia Blocks not even at negotiation stage at the moment, but I think we all expect 1 to be awarded...perhaps?
So our LOWBALL POTENTIAL Target COULD BE, MAYBE, POSSIBLY BE in the region of 2.6 Billion Barrels. (excluding Zambia's 3 barrels)
I find myself trying to down size the potential....and still come up with us hugely misvalued...LOL.
On the cautious, prudent side...(early simple)
DEDUCT a HUGE RISK percentage (work on **under 10%**)...say we only get a total of 200-250 Million Barrels across ALL of our acreage....This still values Swala at ABOVE $6.00 Australian$$, as per the Argonauts Research Paper.
Now to be further prudent...DOUBLE the Swala Shares on issue to ~300 million shares......we still come in at ABOVE $A3.00 per share.
Crazy leverage when trading at 24.5 cents, and considering;
1. No Zambia value added...don't forget ~83% of each block will be owned by Swala (if/when awarded).
2. Production planning underway now (refinery Kenya/Uganda)
3. Kenya looking to expand their Refinery http://www.bgafricagroup.com/african-law-experience.asp (use Cntl+F then type Swala to find info)
4. Infrastructure Planning underway (500,000 barrel pipeline to Port Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania)
5. Banks Investing in the region,
6. M&A action increasing and of high values
7. Increases to resources estimates being pumped out
8 China and India have shown keen interest to invest
9 Swala looking for more
10. Detailed exploration underway in Tanzania (Rolling results pending)
11. Awesome board & Management = Experienced in the game and region
12. Oil and Gas discoveries coming thick and fast (Regionally, and relatively close)
13. Undervalued against peers (and to be frank, peers with less potential, hey, fickled thing the market aye :)
14. Listing SOGTL imminent
15. 12b MT Surveys to commence shortly with 2 seismic later in the year, results early next year.
16. Our valuation on ONLY 200-250 Million Barrels = above $A6.00/A$3.00 (see above) per share...but with a Potential of MULTI BILLION Barrels which is being shored up nearly everyday.
17. Three reports and 1 advertisement (Next Oil Rush I class as an advertisement)...all indicate of how UNDERVALUED we are.
18. Publicity machine picking up (Us and regional)
19. Volumes and price rising....good indicator of Swala interest increasing...Glad I brought early....and it is still early IMHO. (no recommendation to do anything, just an observation)
20. Strong In Country Experience.
21. Excellent experience Partners (Tullow and Otto)
22. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ADD ITEMS 22 to 100 :)
Crazy schnitzel is all I can say. Not often a share like this is available at these prices.
Wish I had a bucket full on money about now :)!!
We are getting there, slowly :)
I feel privileged to have gotten my Swala shares when I did.
As always, PLEASE DYOR, PLEASE check ALL information and correct anything that is wrong. I sincerely want accuracy (unless obvious speculation, which is part/most of the game at this stage anyway).
Haven't bothered to relink all the info, as it can be found within the thread.
END QUOTE POST ___________________________________________________________
******* Edits & Updates: (not saying this is everything...could be more valid points)
Some Facts (F), Some presumed by myself (P): *******
Africa Oil now at $9.55 not $7.77 (F)
Upgrade my guesstimate on K-K from 300mmbls to 400mmbls given positives of seismics to date with announcements supporting potential (P)
China and India advancing on region (F)
SWE at 19.5 cents (shocking, but (F)
SWE reporting - Excellent and within stated times & variable allowances. (F & P)
