new oxr will be cornerstone of the next bhp

Heres the Guru's read:

The combined company will have a MKt cap of greater than $12billion, nearly $4b in cash and $2.5B in annual EBITDA in 2010 growing at 20%p.a, pretty much no debt ($300m), strong reserves of gold, copper, zinc and will become the no 1 takeover target in resources globally with everyone wanting to dance with the new sexy OXY with absolute piles of cash.

FMG (whilst BHP and RT are distracted dancing with each other) will strike and use its high SP and valuation to buy the new OXY. ...or greedy Xstrata...or the Chinese. Therefore M&A premia will instantly come into the new OXR the minute the deal more nor less consummates on June 16. FMG with its near $30B mkt cap and the New OXR combined would be worth over $45B and the Next BHP with Iron Ore, Copper, Gold, Zinc, CF, Cash, Global contracted Customers and market funding will be created and away and a serious new global competitor to the majors etc.

There will be no bid for OXR before the ZFX deal is completed as any potential bidder will wait to buy the new OXR with a pile of options notably Cash and CF.

Global Hedgies, Institutions (who are shorting with OXR LT shareholders who are disguntled with deal and are selling) will all have to buy the new OXR back quickly as it will be surely re-rated and go into a thousand different benchmark indices. Its underlying value is alrady very low so shares will explode to $4.50-$5 very quickly.

SO what looks like a short of the last week will actually be the cornerstone of the next BHP and will have a sharp rally.

If the market was efficient, it would revalue OXR now before the deal as it deserves a higher valuation for a thousand reasons, but the market is behaving inefficiently at the moment...just look at QAN priced for $1000 a barrel oil !! and WPL priced for $50 a barrel and $3 gas.

I think if the deal fails OXR rockets back to $3.75-$4.00 on its own inside 3 days.

Unless OXR gets a better offer, whoever wants to buy will have pay alot more for it after June 16 and with many more suitors so $3.09 will prove a great entry point(...even if it falls to $2.70) because the stock will close at a level one day in June and open another 20% higher. MY guess is June 16 as the court will rubber stamp it on June 20.

Either way, a new bid for OXR rockets the stock, or the deal falls over rockets the stock and or deal consummation rockets the stock.

OXR should be $4 now but might actually go lower to $2.70 before Mid June but will be $5 or higher by years end.

It will be a wild ride.

Youll thank me one day.

Of course I could be wrong and you should do your own research.

Peace:-)