New Phase, New Cycle?

Todays 823 pt Dow and 375 pt Nasdaq rally are most likely to be a bear rally IMO.

I've been (carefully) selecting stocks to go long in over the last few days and one of those I'm now averaging in is 4DS.

My criteria is FA ... insider buying or share buy backs (for stocks with a good chance of being disruptive). (4DS large volumes of options exercising)

and TA ... potentially positively divergent on the MACD. (Many stocks are yet to confirm this as they are at the point of turning - like 4DS)

I've spent years watching the tax loss selling around end June and have learned that many stocks don't wait until the last day to confirm the bottom. It depends on the market and the stock just how low they can go before enough is enough and bulls take over and the stock starts to rise above the selling sometime from mid-June onwards.

I was anticipating further 4DS softness next week (small gap @ 6.8c) but my investment/trading style is to average in, sometime averaging down and sometimes averaging up ... in 4DS case I expect it'll be both. (Have changed my 4DS sentiment to Buy)

Momentum TA traders like to draw lines in the sand but that only works if you want a very modest holding for a small cap stock ... if you want a decent holding there is only one way in this retail market where the bots rule - averaging in.

I follow many chip stocks, chip indices and chip ETFs to guide my decision and lately many of those are looking like having green shoot potential ... but the nicest chart for me right now is TSM (followed by NVDA).

TSM ... double top, almost perfect measured move lower (interval of the double top (inverted W chart) the same interval lower than the W low) and a perfect POSSIBLE turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. (IMO a great indicator for ASX chip stocks, 4DS in particular) Below.

People reading this must realise that charts are only good once they confirm ... and this is yet to confirm but I'm picking it will next week - if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

Lately there's been a very handy check ... the Bitcoin price ... markets really dumped when BTC went under USD20k, and have firmed when BTC rallied over USD20k. This is my double check indicator and might well signal the limit of this bear rally (if that's what it is).

So while BTC stays above USD20k (currently over $21k), it's a fairly easy decision to go long GOOD (disruptive potential ASX) stocks that are well sold off (helped down with tax loss ASX selling also).

There's one other indicator that works really well ... when stocks get oversold ... often for no good FA reason other than just macro reasons and tax loss selling (and a degree of panic) ... their HotCopper stock board will show elements of "cannibalism" when people are in-fighting ... as the panic spreads ... like anarchy in civilized communities ... a sure sign of an opportunity for those with a plan.

(I haven't seen any shorting on 4DS lately other than the odd bot driven scenario (IMO) ... also a prerequisite for me)