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cgt2009

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17/02/23

10:50

Post #: 66305399
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Originally posted by StevieBuoy: ↑

A few points really caught my. attention and when collated point to a future that is significantly more exciting and optimistic than before this interview aired......

Valve in Valve"we are working with the tier 1 of the tier 1 of physicians in this space globally.... as it turns out about 30% of patients are having their first replacement valve FAIL within about 3-8 years.... some physicians say that 40-50% of patients will need a valve in valve replacement..... ONE OF THE HIGHEST PHYSICIANS OUT THERE WHO HAS TALKED ABOUT THIS PUBLICLY SHE SAID THAT THIS (DURAVR) WOULD 100% BE USED FOR EVERY SINGLE PATIENT WHO NEEDED VALVE IN VALVE."Wayne then goes onto comment that if you take that number as 20 or 30% that is $2-3 Billion US in revenue although (my thoughts) if we use the 40-50% figure that some doctors are using that is $4-5 Billion US in revenues.

Total Addressable Market"Certainly when we do the incidence prevalence data, then we take a pharma like penetration of that space, then you're looking at a total addressable market of more like $30 Billon US. The current players who I think have not done a great job of penetrating the market.... I personally believe as do a lot of my management that this market is a potentially a lot bigger than the TAM or the current indicators tell us."

Before we've always used $10 Billion by 2028 to frame our valuations although for a long time I've believed this to be much too low and it's very interesting to hear Mr Paterson now talking about this publicly instead of going off the number thrown around by analysts. The reason I thought it too low was that the DurAVR has a real chance of cannibalising the SAVR market and also being used for younger and younger patients at lower and lower risk so that at the FIRST signs of aortic stenosis the DurAVR would be deployed. That said, whilst I expected TAM to be much higher I didn't expect it to even nearly be as high as $30 Billion US pa, that figure really surprised me.

So if Mr Paterson is correct and the executives/decision makers at Edwards/Medtronic/Other major healthcare companies agree, our future valuation based on potential revenues and earnings just skyrocketed.

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WP's $30 billion forecast gives me comfort he's not going sell us out cheaply.....

AVR Price at posting: $22.04 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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New proactive vid, page-11

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