I don't think you need regression analysis here because the SP...

I don't think you need regression analysis here because the SP is determined by a crowd of investors and shorters that know nothing about regression. It is only a question of psychology of the crowd, which depends on rumors and announcements and sometimes real facts. All of these are almost impossible to quantify.

IMO there is only one event that will determine the SP in the near future, which is the court decision. Here there are two options: either the judge will decide according to law and facts, in this case she must unfreeze the TOL. She will keep the freeze if on the other hand she is strongly biased and/or bribed and/or forced to act according to the opposition demands - perhaps they know something about her that they threaten to reveal if she will unfreeze the TOL.

Now, what regression analysis could tell you about the judge?