I didn't say zero, I said order of magnitude lower. Anything is...

D) they can reapply for a new permit if both are refused (2 month period where the expiry extends)

I didn't say zero, I said order of magnitude lower.

Anything is possible, but to keep driving a narrative right now with the information we have at hand that is extremely unlikely is self-serving.

Now if they refused the extension on the basis of capacity as a cited reason of refusal, then the probability of what your proposing increases. but only marginally as they have 2 more cracks at it, one of which is going through force majeure approval instrument. (must admit I haven't investigated this process yet but i expect it would consider a different set of hurdles to justify)

So in conclusion, with all of your negitivity, ill take the light from your comments and say you support that the approval will be extended. SUPURB, glad to see you have joined the team!