I find this detailed approach to valuation of intellectual interest, but not of great investing interest. As a retail investor why bother going to such detailed valuation effort when opportunities like buying Biota at cash backing come around often enough to make such detailed valuation unnecessary. As a retail investor all you need to do in wait for the easy pitches. If I have to start valuing using option pricing then I know I don't have large enough margin of safety.
If I had to value Biota for corporate reasons or as an analyst then I'd use a combination of DCF for the known cash flows and a mix of options pricing and relative valuation for the other intangibles.
cheers moreld
BTA Price at posting:
63.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held