CMB 0.00% 0.5¢ cambium bio limited

> 10% swing today on low volumes brought up on the radar again....

  1. 163 Posts.
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    > 10% swing today on low volumes brought up on the radar again. Temporary > 10% movement today - not to the positive.

    Tmecht:

    Good questions all of yours. There were too few of those on rgs discussions IMO. One of the reasons I sold my rgs holdings. Too little interest, too much HC spruiking w/o critical analysis, & poor information from the coy. Lots of, "will be 50c by ____", "time to top up" calls with no hard information in support. Too many times (incorrect)....for far too long.

    Maybe "the market" does not like the fact that RGS has a board / mgt team that is not having much commercialisation experience in BioTech and that has promised and promised for too many yrs and all they have done is accumulated losses and paid themselves well until end of last year / now  since 2007 when founded (!) ?

    Maybe both? The very large CEO + CSO performance bonuses with SP - 70% off the cap raise & coy facing ops cash issues was a shocking look for seeking investors/support IMO. And the coys quarterly failed promises about the Japan deal seriously damaged its investor relations in 2015-16.

    Maybe 6 months of "kicking a few goals" is not enough and the substance of their pipeline is still v early to actually yield value.. esp in a highly competitive global market ? (phase 1 phase 1 phase 1 > slide 6)

    The SP, mkt cap, very thin trading volumes and slim interest in this forum tell the story. Their timelines for progenza (and all other products) commercialisation are very long. Perhaps development & commerc. of rgs other products is supposed to fill the income & value gap? The coy is marginally capitalized with big expenses coming up in a highly competitive market. Not all of those paid by the Japan partner.

    Why did they not unlock any value yet from the animal side which seems so much more progressed ?

    I think rgs had sales revenue from some animal product(?) Was there an animal trial overseas w/ commercial option that should have reported by now? A relationship with gxl? Where is that?

    And why do the others mentioned in the slides get higher upfront and milestone payments with partners that are health industry stalwarts already (Takeda and Mitsubishi would have had serious and knowledgeable DD teams looking into their partners IP and pipeline) as opposed to an old conglomerate that is just starting to try and make a name in health/biotech by just buying into many foreign firms but not having a local japanese or global track record in this field (but surely has old money / size..)...

    rgs were running out of $$ and had to make a deal. The SP has dropped after each positive news annc. since the deal, so a cap raise attempt to stay open (rather than the deal) would likely have gone badly. The partner $$ is big to rgs but very small to their partner - who probably spends more annually on dunny paper  The partners DD may have indicated rgs risk profile that only justified the small investment - with most of the $ contingent on achieving performance targets rather than promises.  If the partner who did DD needs hard proof of performance to invest fully why expect something different from other potential investors?

    Why is all the analysts mentioned / covering RGS not first grade and known to be paid for by the companies they cover rather than independant market analysts with a track record in health / biotech..?

    Perhaps rgs cant attract first grade health / biotech independent market analysts? Or are concerned what they might report? It is surprising rgs continue to use Edison - who have a rgs valuation performance track record less that zero. Their rgs analysis was savaged years ago as lacking credibility and treating rgs investors as "mushroom shareholders" & morons.

    Maybe it just needs more time to get back credibility since it dropped from 60 cents and then from around 35 cents down to 10/15 cents ..? Meaning there were days when the OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED was valued much higher but then it lacked what ? > execution ? > strategy  coherence for real industry insiders ? or what led to this drop in value/credibility/trust ?

    rgs performance lacked all of those. The market does not seem to see a lot of opportunity there now.

    The value performance has been a shocker & no doubt left a lot of unhappy current and former investors. "promised and promised for too many yrs and all they have done is accumulated losses and paid themselves well." + consistently very poor mkt & investor communications w/ loaded adjectives and statements & failures to deliver + poorly timed executive bonuses + more Edison compost. Those have really bashed rgs credibility & value. With the ABC debacle that started the decline - a damaged reputation IMHO. Something very difficult to regain when the coy communicates so poorly.

    Well, at least it seems that this AGC deal has legs and they get their milestone payments > hence (the extent of) their losses should stop this year..? a reputation is quickly lost and a long and difficult thing to regain..
    So many questions ....


    Stopping losses is a definite positive. The $1.3 mil AUD milestone payment helps extend the cash runway  for..a quarter(?) Milestone $ is not consistent commercial revenue but it may keep them afloat until they commercialise something that generates enough $ to fund operations in the absence of milestone payments. That may restore some credibility but seems many years off. the coy may have other (vet?) products planned for commercialisation in the meantime(?) But either rgs do not have these anywhere near commercialisation or cant put together and communicate a coherent strategy for industry insiders and investors. Or are Edison "report" adverts their strategy?

    rgs credibility and reputation seem low w/ very little interest. coy needs a very large positive announcement to break 14c IMO. I do not see that on the horizon for several years. The market at large does not wither it seems.

    Too little value, too many questions & too few answers for me, so I sold.

    But I hope the company eventually comes through. Maybe with better management?

    GLTAH.
 
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