zwu-lets get it straight i buy aus shares exclusively,truly difficult to understand the analogy you are trying to create between abare statement and me as a holder,so i will try to create a simple picture .
if the aus$ dropped to 67c i think gns would go gangbusters
aiding its exponential growth as a diverse enterprise,should others share that view the sp. will most likely lift enormously,meanwhile gns is unlikely to go out of business.
as for the current sp. against holding costs i am down 27%,with sufficient capacity to expend 6 times my original cost base on this stock.(considerably more if i wished to go solo )
the percentile of holders who are down only 27% would be nominal as opposed to the register.
so its all about probability and the timeframe to capture the timebased value of money the longer it is under pressure from hedge plays and the tighter the trading range the less likely it is to create a loss.
i am looking for outperformance over a time frame of 1-3years,and no i doubt very much indeed that gns will be a balance sheet casualty which is the reason for entering.
and i can trade gns in that time,not at present though
my list of stocks that i actively track is 107 gns is one,
that means research,extensive,and culling to arrive at 107,some are actually funds which if i wanted a more conservative approach i would embrace,i have beaten the funds ,so far, and i use one in particular as an index
i just exited one stock that i have held for 15months did not sell at the high,but have still returned over 300% on my net capital base.
i hope zwu that explains a bit more,this is a system and there are risks,but it is very difficult to get excellent returns from A grade stocks so i dont buy them,i accept the risk of stressed balance sheets,excluding those where management are poor or those with intricate financing,at present A$ is highly valued as the european and usa crisis softens they will put up int. rates the aus$ is most likely to suffer when that eventuates.
timber is an essential resource the world over, a lower aus$
wqill probably squeeze margins for other emerging countries especially in the area of transport
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