I have been a long term holder and averaged down like a great many others over the last year or so (looking to chase those losses).
I am starting to feel a little bit uncomfortable about the prospects of ATC (which is where a significant portion of the companies value is). While I have no doubt the trial results will be positive, the little devil on my shoulder keeps suggesting that if this is the case, why is the SP so low (assuming all that jibba jabba about efficient markets and all that finance school rubbish).
If ATC is truly the jewel of the Australian biotech industry I find it hard to believe big pharma hasn't swallowed the company whole by now or at least decided to get in on that action with a partnership agreement... I think there is a significant chance that ATC may end up on the scrap heap (purely based on my perceived level of interest from big pharma).
While I am aware that there are rules in place around the disclosure of in confidence discussions with potential partners, they have been looking at partnering for 2 years. Surely a partner can be found in that length of time if the product is commercially any good (which is very different from good in trials).
In an attempt to not be all doom and gloom, I do note that there are 2 good things going for the company: 1.Ongoing talks with J&J (Which is a lot more interest than ATC is getting by the look of things) 2.They managed to get Orbis to pump in millions. While I would never suggest miss-conduct, they AVX board must have painted a pretty damn nice picture to those fund managers about the talks with potential partners to get them to sink that much money into a leaky boat.
Please feel free to ignore my above rant! These are just the words of a shareholder who is disgruntled and had one too many afternoon scotches.
Good luck all!
(Like Sads, I do not intend to hold after 1Q10).
AVX Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
