Rafish: I'd be surprised if JPR could get anywhere close to the 200mmbo you suggest, certainly from the current acreage. The Company indicates potential of around 100mmbo in the B31 extension, the J54 subcrop and Akkar East extension. This on top of the perhaps 35mmbo already found at Akkar East itself. If they had a perfect strike rate on every available target, they might therefore reach something around 140mmbo. Personally, I'd be surprised if there isn't at least one duster in either the Akkar East extension or the J54 subcrop, so I'd reckon closer to 100mmbo as the top end of what we could hope for (though I'd be delighted to be wrong).
However, while I think your reserves guess is on the high side, I think your valuation per barrel is too low. $5 would be pretty cheap for 2Ps in the ground with little or no surface infrastructure and production, which I expect much of the field to have by the time they sell out. I'd therefore think that something closer to $10/bbl would be more realistic for the producing reserves.
A guesstimate fag-packet calculation of a final takeover valuation, assuming no more than say 200m shares in issue (which I think should be pretty safe) might be something like: 70mmbo of 2Ps at $8/bbl = $560m, which would give about $2.80 per share. I'd be happy with that.
JPR Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
