Hi all, here's a gaggle of charts and some babble to go with them.
First the daily chart, and is it just me or has the price action over the last couple of months looked especially deliberate and purposeful? Particularly since the spring off the Oct 3 low, price has methodically hit and tested a major horizontal level above, then pulled back to gather the troops while back-testing to levels that make sense and plenty of people can see, before advancing again and back-testing again - all at established horizontal levels that have been in place for over 9 months! A couple of springs while the dips have been bought and thoughtful consolidation before working its way up through a range has left a nice bullish background to the chart.
Of course supply has appeared again approaching the $2 level, and there was a large down bar reaction after getting in to oversold territory and momentum red-lining on Monday while leaping up to hit Richie Benaud's $2.22- but sellers have not really followed through after that, with volume dropping significantly over the next few days. However for price to move up, demand will need to step in again- and there are certainly encouraging signs here with a high closing bar on increased volume on Friday, and a potential bullish hidden divergence in the works.
Anything can happen, but following a pullback like this it usually takes a few days after the momentum turns back up for a new upward price move to stick and follow through. Momentum has not yet turned back up so it would not be unusual for price to spend a bit more time regathering some strength before the next move up. Now I've said that it will probably explode and be at $2.40 by Tuesday, but hey I don't think many would complain.
On the weekly we can't ignore last weeks down bar on high volume which registered a weak bearish divergence and suggests price may need to work through this zone a bit longer. It's also easier to see the major areas of support on the weekly.
And here's a look at the relative performance of LTR versus a few other Lithiums and the AUD vs US dollar. I've heard macro commentators view a rising AUD vs USD as an indicator of improving sentiment towards growth, but it's interesting to see the Lithiums lead the AUD slightly and very obvious that a rising AUD provides (or confirms) a strong tailwind for them. PLS was a relative out-performer for a while, however in late September started to register a series of bearish divergences at the tops, giving the chart the appearance of rounding off as it went in to a ranging consolidation. Not sure how useful this type of comparison is for anticipating moves for LTR, but possibly provides a bit of reassurance while the AUD and LTR are moving up together...
Good luck all.
(20min delay)
